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51 Comments

  1. 1

    Anonymous

    let me add two more :

    scenario 9 : SAAB promises full technology transfer (excluding the radar and the engine – which are not theirs ). promises to co-fund and co-develop AMCA. and since much water has flown down the ganga after the bofors scandal and since india is technology hungry at this point , they will go for it.

    scenario 10: russia promises the moon including the deep technology transfer of the whole plane including the new AESA radar and engine. a sincere promise this time unlike the past snags. 😀
    india can't refuse.

    since the order means a lot to both SAAB and MIG – in my opinion moon is not unlikely .

    and i have a feeling that this MMRCA is actually even bigger than it looks.
    india talks about two front war – which needs number. so it is likely that they will not stop at 126 but will go for 200.
    indian navy has shown interest in these planes and they intend to have 200 fighters by 2020. it is likely that they will buy 100 of whatever IAF buys

    Reply
  2. 2

    Anonymous

    by the way , will the tech evolution report of IAF be made public?

    Reply
  3. 3

    amit

    F-18 or F-16 will make the cut because Mr.manmohan is pro american.
    (remember P-8 ,C-17 and C-130J.)

    Reply
  4. 4

    Anonymous

    you should list all the rumors however far fetched.
    if nothing else it will be an entertaining read.

    Reply
  5. 5

    mirza

    Other scenario

    1 Nuclear deal (f18/16)
    2 Avoiding Mix veg (Typhoon/Gripen)
    3 Old pal Hidden Help (Mig)
    4 blocking More weapon 4 pak frm France (Rafale)

    My two cent goes Rafale

    Reply
  6. 6

    Chanakya

    Our best bet is a Eurocanard
    Trust me
    Mig-35- Not in service, too many Russian planes and not sure it has the lowest RCS,
    The teens- Very risky, Porkis already operate F-16s , and I'm unimpressed by the performance of the Hornet.
    Gripen-As suggested by Shiv,no Govt will buy Swedish,

    The EF and Rafale are excellent birds,(with the Rafale as the more suitable candidate) They may be expensive to purchase, but the cost of ownership will be less, and there's also the incentive of a new political partnership with the European consortium.

    Reply
  7. 7

    Anonymous

    Funny, on the scenario 5 "keep it real, keep it medium", the MiG-35 is still in whereas the lighter Rafale isn't ^^

    Just to put some light on this light debate.

    Reply
  8. 8

    Anonymous

    finally ,the bombing truck is more likely in IAF

    Reply
  9. 9

    Nishant Bhatnagar

    Hi, It was intresting to read through these senario's:
    Few more will play the part like; Strategic & Long Term Partnership; Which firm is ready to help India build it's own engine (sorry, about Kaveri's present situation); ASEA Radar Technology and off course what finally Indian Government decides few inputs will be from FET results :)! I think it will between French Rafale and US Super Hornet F-18s. Rest Time will tell but whatever it is make it fast as IAF squadorn numbers are dropping.

    Reply
  10. 10

    Ricky

    Well MMRCA isnt about India anymore, the one who will win will get a major economic boost! So its obvious that rumours will be tracked in our radars as the competitors will try their very best to churn out their beloved birds!!!!

    Reply
  11. 11

    Anonymous

    Interesting, but that's more hypothesis than rumors on who may be in and who may be out following FET. We shall see, I trust IAF for making wise recommandations on their best candidate(s) based on technical capabilities.

    Reply
  12. 12

    Anonymous

    studied speculations :).. interesting read but..

    Reply
  13. 13

    Jaguar

    What about the geo political one? America and Russians knock each other out due to over dependence given current orders. Gripen NG stays the dark horse cause it is selling a plane that comes into operation in 2014 while the rest have the latest vintage of 1994 when they first flew. But the French are the leading contenders because they always were. Remember, the French are not talking to anyone, including journalists. So the IAF gets what it wants: A French plane which is resistant to pressures from both the French and the Russians and has no overall dependence unlike the Gripen with its yank engine. The Typhoon stays close to the French as option 2 cause, apart from the European balance, its better because it has been sold to a few countries.

    Reply
  14. 14

    Anonymous

    @Shiv in all your scenarios you missed RAFALE any reason is it out by all means?Between if we buy USA hardware this it'll be the saddest thing to do.So finger crossed let's believe MOD will agree to what Airforce wants

    Reply
  15. 15

    Fishbed

    Scenario whatever..
    No – Mig 35 – Considering money spent in buying Russian Mig 29K and future PAK FA.
    No – F-16/18 – Considering money spent in buying P-8, C-17and C-130J.
    No – Gripen – They can't offer Engine tech, the most crucial in terms of India's future ambitions.
    Yes – Typhoon – Latest tech. New Euro political partnership.
    Yes – Rafale – Latest Tech. Blocks sale of weapons to Pak. Capable Navy fighter if IN is interested in future.

    Reply
  16. 16

    Anonymous

    and how did this post help clear any air i still don't understand. best of luck

    Reply
  17. 17

    Shiv Aroor

    this post doesn't intend to "clear the air". please read the full post and the intro.

    Reply
  18. 18

    Anonymous

    Shiv,every1 knows this deal isnt only for d birds but it includes tot,lifetime spare support,crew training,help in new tech. Development,improved relationship,production line establishment in here.so,its a fully package deal we r about to make!!which out of these can make it?whose proposal is best overall?all comments most wellcome.

    Reply
  19. 20

    Ra

    Looking in to overall scenario presented with various ifs and buts, the strategy may emerge, so as to depend upon the historical beaten track or on the proven line of reliability, which may exclude any new experiments and the risks involved therein.

    It may turnout to be either 126 Mig35 + 74 Rafale
    OR
    126 Rafale + 74 Mig35 depending upon their overall price tags.

    I think this kind of arrangement may be able to suffice all kinds of projected technological and capability gaps.

    As a choice, Mig35 can be selected only when Russians agree to incorporate the superior French and Israeli avionics as in case of Su-30MKIs .

    Actually all other aircrafts are equally good in some or other respects, but purchasing them may need also to purchase Octopus Paul for predicting their behaviors through daily forecasts. Lol…

    Reply
  20. 21

    praneetbajpaie

    Shiv, I would like to ask for your opinion on this one. Which aircraft should we buy and why? Please, a reply is awaited.

    Reply
  21. 22

    Anonymous

    I agree with [email protected]:23
    It will definitely be an american aircraft. For sure.

    Reply
  22. 23

    Anonymous

    Noone wants the Rafale for a reason: it sucks. It's underpowered, it's radar is useless compared to the teen series or even the Typhoon, it has a light payload, and it has lower tech suite than the Typhoon or the latest teen-series. Did I mention it's just as expensive as the other two for half the performance? Yea, that's a no-go. The Shornet is the best bet considering it's amazing payload capabilities (bombtruck), otherworldly radar (compared to the rest), superb engines, and proven platform status. If the Americans offered some sort of ToT, it would be a done deal, no questions asked. From a pure performance perspective, one could argue it even has the Typhoon beat.

    Reply
  23. 24

    Anonymous

    MiG-35 offers, without a shadow of a doubt, the most bang for buck. India also has a lot of positive experience with MiG-29s and also infrastructure for them. The only reason I can see against MiG-35 is dependance on a single supplier for nearly all of their modern fighter fleet, but with full technology transfer this isn't a problem anymore.

    Anything but a MiG-35 win would come as an utter surprise to me.

    Reply
  24. 25

    Anonymous

    Anon @10.06 pm seems to be a true expert… not sure the IAF will share his views on Rafale, which are rather…outdated !

    Reply
  25. 26

    gossipking0104

    @ Ra.. lol.. it is indeed a good idea to encourage octopus Paul to come out of retirement and shed some light as to who will win the MMRCA competition.. my 2 cents goes to 126 Mig 35 + 74 Typhoons..

    Reply
  26. 27

    Sudip Das ([email protected])

    Dear Shiv,

    Kindly elaborate on the following :

    i) Life cycle cost will be considered to evaluate the price bids, then how can MIG-35 qualify

    ii) IAF chief says that the evaluation process can be used as a template for fighter aircraft evaluation: By what logic both single and twin engine fighters qualify in the same tender. If both qualifies then one is forced to believe that the specification are general and everyone can qualify

    iii) If GRIPEN qualifies and India decides to buy the same then what happens to LCA . Kindly compare the specification of GRIPEN and LCA , THERE IS HARDLY any difference

    Reply
  27. 28

    Anonymous

    The "Merchants of Death" are spending good money on psy warfare and on journalists.

    Suddenly so many specialists have emerged out of no where not knowing even the aft of the aircraft !

    Good going guys !

    Reply
  28. 29

    Avi

    My Opinion based on all the scenarios is to go for the MiG35. Considering the commonality with the MiG29 and the IAFs experience with the already existing 60+ birds this would surely be the best bet.

    MiG35s with the RD33OVT make the A/C super maneuverable which is needed for the Dogfight considering our great neighbours (Porkis and Chinkis). Not only is the MiG-35 the only super maneuverable aircraft amidst MMRCA contenders, the Russians are ready to package it with long range weapons they have never offered before. These include "long-range weapons to attack targets without entering the adversary's air defense zone"

    I am not very sure about whether the full ToT would happen, but Russians have promised to share the Know-how of AeSA radar and also if they can get the Engine technology, it would be the biggest win.

    Reply
  29. 30

    Anonymous

    Unless unkil agrees to

    1) Outside EUMA, no CISMOA…
    2) License manufacture of EPE engines in India
    3) Open source radar

    stay away from Shornet and f-16. If Manmohan still pushes that then he is Naive to the point of treason. We can always repay for 123 with buying other stuff.

    IAF may be impressed with their aesa but still there is no use of a uber-top hardware that only works during exercises but may or may not work on the D-day due to pre-requisite blessings of unkil and wide-spread kill-switches.

    Years ago the turk invader Timur,the Lame immediately descended down from the Elephant when he found out it has No reins to control by the rider. Hope IAF does not make the mistake of opting for flashy aesas and planes outside its control.

    Reply
  30. 31

    Anonymous

    India wants a lot more than an airframe/avionic/engine/life time maintenance. It wants in on the intricate supply web that connects the Western Military Industrial Complex – which BTW now includes the Russian forces too to a not insignificant extent. It wants this deal to first take it several steps beyond the Su-30MKI where it is the systems integrator and chief contractor for subsystems. This time India wants to go beyond basic avionics (where it has mastered controls, but needs to get its teeth into Attack/Nav/EW/ECM/ECCM) and propulsion. Where its need will first drive customization, then indigenous research. Next the IAF is no longer the only buyer of combat airframes, the IN is going to be very soon the biggest naval aviation customer in the world after the USN. The IN is already planning a Naval Flight Academy (like NAS Pensacola) and a test facility like Pax River. Capt.Maolankar, IN is, for those who did not notice, the chief test pilot for the IN. In five years' time we will be talking about the IN Aviation like we talk about the IAF. Just as USN's aviation fleet is bigger than others' AFs, IN plans to be the biggest naval aviation force between Suez and Brisbane. V. aggressive power projection is planned. For those who missed it the IN and IAF recently conducted an eight hour long airborne attack mission vectoring aircraft from about 8 different locations to the Bay. Already IN is talking about the F35, and is working v.hard to leap ahead on carrier aviation capability. So vendors are looking at a new induction of 200-250 airframes, which will ensure India's combat air assets are qualitatively and quantitatively superior.

    Reply
  31. 32

    Dilemma

    IMO, the following aircraft will make the shortlist:
    1) Super Bug – MoD would like to keep atleast one American aircraft in the row. So to make other competitors realize they need to come up with an AESA radar asap. Also, it reiterates the point that the plane needs to be a bomb truck first and fighter second.

    2) Rafale – The Rafale is actually a really capable aircraft that has a great payload, great avionics and decent maneuverability. The Rafale is my favorite as it is the best package of all, ideal for the MMRCA (full ToT, no fear of sanctions, great payload, great range, great avionics, decent cost and a promising future of upgrades, AESA to be put into production this year)

    3) EFT – MoD will keep this in the race as it would not like to upset EADS just by relegating them from the shortlist as they are in the fray for the LCA engine as well as the LCA AESA radar partner. Not to mention it has a great future ahead as many countries operate it.

    4) Gripen NG – The only reason why the MoD will keep this in the race because of its low operational and per piece cost, they're ready to integrate whatever the system IAF wants them to add. Even though Sweden will not offer any political leverage, it will make other competitors reduce their costs and/or integrate whatever systems the IAF wants.

    Why the Super Viper & Mig 35 wont make the shortlist:
    The F-16 is the most evolved and maybe the best contender regarding capabilities. But the fact that its main users the USA, Israel and other NATO countries are looking to replace it with the F35 will not be good in the long term. Yes spare parts will be available for a long time but there will be no scope left for future upgrades.
    Coming to the Mig 35, it seems to be the least capable aircraft of them all except for the TVC. Also, Mig 35 seems to be more of a A2A fighter which the IAF doesn't need. A2G comes first, A2A comes later.

    Reply
  32. 33

    Anonymous

    At least one scenario is out – DRDO claims that they can give IAF their own version of MMRCA and better than these aircrafts in next three years

    the way they scuttled 155mm !

    Reply
  33. 34

    Ra

    QUOTE>>
    Anonymous said…@2:57 AM
    Unless unkil agrees to

    IAF may be impressed with their aesa but still there is no use of a uber-top hardware that only works during exercises but may or may not work on the D-day due to pre-requisite blessings of unkil and wide-spread kill-switches.

    Years ago the turk invader Timur,the Lame immediately descended down from the Elephant when he found out it has No reins to control by the rider. Hope IAF does not make the mistake of opting for flashy aesas and planes outside its control.
    <<UNQUOTE

    That is why I love Tejas in-spite of its difficulties.

    Reply
  34. 35

    NJS

    I strongly believe F-18 will be selected by technically / politically ( pressure from US). even though Typhoon has same kind of pressure from four nations it has only second chances .
    in my view india will go for 126 nos F-18 + 63 nos may be mig35 to cool our old friend russia .

    Reply
  35. 36

    deepak

    the iaf has the reputation of a lethal air force because it operates such a variety of specialized air crafts..nothing bad if we go for a combination..even if it costs us..our enemies wouldn't like it neway..my vote goes for Mig 35(70) + typhoon(70)..if they could think of more than 126..

    Reply
  36. 37

    Anonymous

    TO SHIV AROOR , for past 1 year m following you man , u jus simply rocks … Da way u presents things r so beautifully ,da way u xplain without jeoparding official secrets… I think becoz of U good people many other defence blogsite nd forums r thriving … Shiv i hv special request regarding information on ARJUN MK2 and LCA MK2 … Thankin U

    Reply
  37. 38

    Anonymous

    Out of the six, I feel that each fighter comes with its own set of advantages and disadvantages. However, Gripen has one major advantage – it was designed to operate from shorter runways and hence can be operated from roads. This line is directly from Wikipedia.

    "Accordingly, among the requirements from the Swedish Air Force was that the Gripen fighter should be able to land on public roads near military stores for quick maintenance, and take off again. As a result, the Gripen fighter can be refueled and re-armed in ten minutes by a five man mobile ground crew operating out of a truck, and then resume flying sorties."

    Reply
  38. 39

    Anonymous

    When one considers the life-cycle costs, the Mig aircraft obviously have an edge. Their engines and avionics can be assembled, tested and maintained by HAL, because of their prior experience with Russian aircraft. Either ways, for diplomatic and other reasons, it will serve IAF and GOI well to stick to their guidelines for technological evaluation and desist from giving a geo-political tint to the contract.

    Reply
  39. 40

    Anonymous

    Worst Case Scenario: IAF, MOD and Politico Babus end up selecting and agreeing on a Bird and actually ordering it.

    This will mean lost jobs for half the defence journos worldwide plus total loss of timepass value of web warriors. That would be a nightmare scenario.

    I dread to think about the websphere world when MMRCA comes up with a selected bird.

    Cecx Fable and Gas

    Reply
  40. 41

    Anonymous

    IMO –

    The Eurofighter and Mig-35 aren't first-cut, though I doubt either is the final selection, and the Hornet and Rafale never had a chance. None of these four have superior performance over the Migs India is already building, only advanced technology. The Rafale and Hornet coming at extremely high cost.

    By continuing to fly the Eurofighter and Mig-35, India can test the possible capabilities of domestic, technology-enhanced Mig-29s. They can build a better version of the Mig-35 themselves with tech-sharing gained from more sophisticated aircraft.

    The only two aircraft close to filling India's need for a mass-produced, light multirole are the Saab and Falcon. The big differences between the two are engines and tech-sharing, both favoring Saab and eliminating the Falcon.

    I voted the Hornet, Rafale, Falcon first-cut and think the Gripen will be the final selection.

    Reply
  41. 42

    Anonymous

    Blending the total buy between Mig35 and Typhoon where either one could 126 and other 74 is still the best option that:
    -fits the bill,
    -keeps per average plane cost optimum
    -brings something new(EF) and
    -still keeps strategic independence.

    Reply
  42. 43

    Anonymous

    Blending the total buy between Mig35 and Typhoon where either one could 126 and other 74 is still the best option that:
    -fits the bill,
    -keeps per average plane cost optimum
    -brings something new(EF) and
    -still keeps strategic independence.

    Reply
  43. 44

    Anonymous

    I do not know about the options but I know the outcome
    1. Let say that select some aircraft 1 -> 2011
    2. Scandal -> 2011
    3. New RFP -> 2012
    4. select aircraft 3 -> 2015
    5. Scandal -> 2015
    6. New RFP -> 2016
    7. select aircraft 6 -> 2019
    8. Scandal -> 2019

    and tarikh pe tarikh …

    India lives in villages man… China and Pakistan will attack cities and installation that help more ppl in citis and votes come from villages … nobody gives a damn … mera bharat mahan

    Reply
  44. 45

    Anonymous

    Shiv what about the rumor of buying 200 instead of 126 thought of earlier.
    do u have any info about this……!!!

    Reply
  45. 46

    Anonymous

    In your opinion poll, there is no choice for turning down all the six options. What if the mother of all scandals which is now gathering storm becomes a hurricane and results in no choice.

    Reply
  46. 47

    3rd ~ EyE

    Shiv good work , looks like IAF is funding a -Reality Show Bizzz ! 🙂

    i would to c d Gripen or the Hornet fly past the finish line … with Su30s in quiver we dont want sum high tech/price junk like Typhoon/Raphael

    Reply
  47. 48

    Rahul

    Shiv please get me answer of this question i am walking with all these years.

    Why Boeing did not offered F-15 instead of F/A-18?

    Reply
  48. 49

    Anonymous

    Why not F-15 from Boeing..coz I think our Su-30 MKI is designed and made to compete against F-15…

    MMRCA …it should be given to Boeing's F-18 with some conditions attached
    1. Total tech transfer with all stealth features boeing currently planning for F-18 , no exceptions
    2.We should have Boeing regional Manufacturing of civil and military aviation hub in India as china got their Airbus assembly centre.
    3. Stop Pak get advance radar tech from US
    Mallik

    Reply
  49. 50

    Anonymous

    The us President Even don't want to give jobs to India so why we should buy from their company flights f/16in, f18/sh, and how we can expect they will give full tot they won't consider your (India)benefit they will do for their company and country first so please don't trust American companies here is the latest report that the US president speaks about jobs reference link (http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article550001.ece) The line that probably has Indian Ministry of External Affairs officials worried is this: “When I took office… we put forward a new economic plan — a plan that… is focused on making our middle class more secure and our country more competitive in the long run — so that the jobs and industries of the future aren't all going to China and India, but are being created right here in the U.S…”

    Reply
  50. 51

    Anonymous

    Apparently Putin and Medvedev will have to act in the best traditions of the Hindu: unleash more universal mystical sadness on his face and declare that henceforth, in connection with a severe global economic situation and the unstable political situation in countries of the Indian Basin, the cost of modernization of aircraft carrier Vikramaditya rises to 5 -6 billion's $ 🙂

    Reply

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